The ZamZam Cooler

The sectarian colour that pervades throughout much of the political discourse in the Arab and wider Muslim world is not the consequence of a sinister geopolitical strategy imposed by the West. It is the unintended result of a seismic shift in power induced by the West. The sectarian question has traditionally been subsumed in the extreme imbalances of power existent throughout the Middle East and most of the Muslim World. Any serious attempt at a rapprochement or a meeting of the minds between competing factions would have serious implications for ruling elites. The history of the Muslim world shows that Shi'is and Sunnis when advantaged over the other, in some circumstances, have raised the flag of sectarianism to advance and protect political interests. The Safawids sanctioned and encouraged vitriolic polemicists to openly denigrate Sunnis in order to galvanize support for the Safawid-Ottoman conflicts. They developed passion plays and rituals which pejoratively cast Companions of the Prophet celebrated by Sunnis in order to infuse their demagoguery into the hearts of lay Shi'is. The Abbasids first played on populist pro-Shi'i sentiments in order to facilitate a rise to power. Thereafter, once comfortably seated in power they reneged on ideological promises and began construction on an orthodoxy which would embrace a politically myopic perspective to censure opposition and legitimize their rule. In this effort, they went from riding the backs of Shi'is to power to criminalizing their leadership and suppressing lay followers. The point being, a culture of sectarian politics is deeply rooted in our past and to dismiss the sectarian tension of today as only a by-product of foreign interventionism is an egregious oversimplification.

So it comes as no surprise to me to witness the appearance of sectarianism in a Middle East which both in character and quality, hearkens back to the deficits in wisdom and the political anxieties of old. I would, however, identify one glaring exception. While in the past, sectarianism was largely an instrument for political gain, the imbalances of power were able to prevent severe sectarian conflict of the sort many people today suspect will erupt in the Middle East. Military challenges or political mutinies were always impossible because of the major qualitative gap in capabilities. I ought to add in fairness, in the overwhelmingly majority of the time, it was Sunni patrons who dominated over Shi'i citizens. This historical sense of subjugation and second class treatment has undoubtedly contributed to the severity of the conflict we witness today.

I wouldn't suggest that in today's times we witness a parity in political or military power, but I would strongly argue that in the Middle East of today there is at least a growing proportional balance of power between Shi'is and Sunnis. However, what is more important, is that this Shi'i "revival" disturbs the centuries old power balance which historically provided a barrier to major conflict. Therefore, if political differences between Shi'is and Sunnis are irreconcilable -- as they are now -- the possibility of a large scale, protracted sectarian conflict, whether directly or through proxies, is very real.

While most analysts would corroborate such an apocalyptic scenario, I feel slightly more optimistic. But I don't feel optimistic because I disagree with their analysis. Certainly, I would acknowledge that within parts of the Muslim world there is a consistent record of being intolerant of the intellectual diversity within Islam and that we also face an accentuated social and political lag in the wider Middle East. But, this same depiction produces the source of my optimism -- the situation we face is so dire and the impasse so seemingly impenetrable, any political solution which dares to be successful must address the core issue of the conflict, that is, the relationship between Shi'is and Sunnis and calling the two into a symbiotic relationship. I'm optimistic for the reason that there is an acknowledgment we can no longer delay the long-lost rapprochement between Shi'is and Sunnis and security concerns have made both sides realize that intra-faith solidarity is a key strategic priority.

So for once, calls for Shi'i - Sunni unity cannot be appeased by empty rhetoric and hollow slogans. Whether from the politics of Iran, confessionalism in Lebanon, or the destruction in Iraq -- everyone is able to verify the potential consequences of failure and envision the benefits of a rapprochement. This, however, poses the very unique question which is yet to be permissible for serious discussion: What would be the nature of a successful and sustainable rapprochement?